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PICK PERFORMANCE
Updated Sunday April 7 at 7:00 AM. 

Pick performance analysis for the 2024 tournament is published.  If you are new to the pool, or do not remember, this is analysis of how well teams perform based on how they were picked to perform.  So for each team, you can see how many sheets they were picked on in each round.  Multiply that by the points they would accumulate and you get an anticipated number of points they will earn.  That is in the "POINTS SELECTED" column.

Points earned is based on how many points each team actually realizes.  That total is in the "POINTS EARNED COLUMN"   The performance index is the percentage of expected points that a team actually wins. 

Now if you are wondering why there are so many teams, and all the really good teams, in negative numbers, they need to go deeper into the tournament to have a positive result.  And just by the nature of the tournament, you usually know who the worst performer is after the first round.  I'm looking at your Purdue and Arizona, though I will admit surprise Arizona had more points expected of them than Purdue did.

The table is at the bottom of the page and will be updated with each round.





It is official.  With UConn's win in the Sweet Sixteen, Kentucky is officially the biggest flop of the 2024 NCAA Tournament.  Big Blue Nation is not happy, John!



Region Seed Team Rd1 Rd2 S16 E8 SF CG Total Picks Points Selected Points
Earned
Performance
Index
East 1 Uconn 58 58 50 41 33 21 261 1632 1632 1000.0
South 11 NC State 23 4 2 1 0 0 30 381 381 1000.0
East 9 Northwestern 31 0 0 0 0 0 31 310 310 1000.0
West 6 Clemson 28 7 2 0 0 0 37 274 274 1000.0
West 12 Grand Canyon 16 0 0 0 0 0 16 208 208 1000.0
Midwest 8 Utah State 20 0 0 0 0 0 20 180 180 1000.0
South 14 Oakland 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 30 30 1000.0
East 13 Yale 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 14 14 1000.0
West 4 Alabama 54 42 11 6 1 0 114 724 705 954.8
Midwest 1 Purdue 58 58 47 29 19 10 221 1225 1195 945.5
East 3 Illinois 52 39 21 2 0 0 114 597 571 930.4
South 9 Texas A&M 34 2 1 0 0 0 37 376 340 868.3
East 5 San Diego State 43 10 1 1 1 0 56 373 328 834.4
South 4 Duke 53 39 8 4 1 0 105 646 571 808.9
South 10 Colorado 11 1 1 0 0 0 13 148 121 790.6
East 11 Duquesne 17 4 0 0 0 0 21 256 204 744.9
East 7 Washington State 21 4 1 0 0 0 26 216 168 729.8
Midwest 7 Texas 42 6 3 0 0 0 51 426 336 698.7
West 7 Dayton 34 7 2 0 0 0 43 359 272 670.7
West 9 Michigan State 41 4 4 1 0 0 50 529 410 656.0
South 12 James Madison 18 6 0 0 0 0 24 318 234 651.8
Midwest 11 Oregon 26 8 0 0 0 0 34 416 312 646.0
Midwest 3 Creighton 55 37 12 4 0 0 108 553 405 584.4
Midwest 5 Gonzaga 49 30 8 4 2 2 95 698 504 528.1
Midwest 4 Kansas 48 20 3 1 0 0 72 401 240 437.5
South 2 Marquette 57 48 22 9 2 1 139 663 363 247.5
Midwest 2 Tennessee 58 49 39 19 9 2 176 1032 643 234.1
East 2 Iowa State 58 50 30 9 5 2 154 785 374 65.4
West 15 Long Beach State 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0
West 16 Howard 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0
Midwest 15 St Peters 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0
Midwest 16 Montana State 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0
East 15 South Dakota State 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0
East 16 Stetson 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0
South 16 Longwood 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0
South 15 Western Kentucky 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 16 0 -16.0
West 3 Baylor 54 40 13 7 0 0 114 611 216 -41.5
West 13 Charleston 4 0 0 0 0 0 4 56 0 -56.0
West 14 Colgate 4 0 0 0 0 0 4 60 0 -60.0
Midwest 14 Akron 3 1 1 0 0 0 5 80 0 -80.0
East 14 Morehead State 6 0 0 0 0 0 6 90 0 -90.0
South 13 Vermont 5 2 0 0 0 0 7 100 0 -100.0
Midwest 13 Samford 10 2 0 0 0 0 12 170 0 -170.0
West 8 Mississippi State 17 2 0 0 0 0 19 173 0 -173.0
East 12 Alabama-Birmingham 15 0 0 0 0 0 15 195 0 -195.0
Midwest 12 McNeese 9 6 0 0 0 0 15 201 0 -201.0
Midwest 10 Colorado State 16 3 1 0 0 0 20 227 0 -227.0
East 8 Florida Atlantic 26 0 0 0 0 0 26 234 0 -234.0
West 1 North Carolina 58 52 40 20 7 2 179 850 272 -258.0
West 10 Nevada 24 1 0 0 0 0 25 276 0 -276.0
South 8 Nebraska 24 4 3 1 0 0 32 313 0 -313.0
West 2 Arizona 58 50 40 21 8 3 180 1054 374 -325.2
South 6 Texas Tech 35 7 4 0 0 0 46 345 0 -345.0
Midwest 6 South Carolina 32 12 2 1 0 0 47 358 0 -358.0
Midwest 9 Texas Christian 38 0 0 0 0 0 38 380 0 -380.0
South 5 Wisconsin 40 11 5 1 0 0 57 382 0 -382.0
West 5 Saint Marys 42 16 3 2 0 0 63 424 0 -424.0
East 10 Drake 37 4 0 0 0 0 41 455 0 -455.0
East 6 BYU 41 15 6 0 0 0 62 473 0 -473.0
South 7 Florida 47 9 1 1 0 0 58 486 0 -486.0
West 11 New Mexico 30 11 1 1 0 0 43 540 0 -540.0
South 1 Houston 58 52 41 30 17 7 205 1141 272 -630.6
East 4 Auburn 57 48 7 5 2 1 120 750 0 -750.0
South 3 Kentucky 56 47 28 11 7 4 153 972 0 -972.0

ONE SHINING PICK
First, please forgive my inexcusable immaturity regarding the image.  There was a time when I was younger, I believed my body would stop growing (taller) and my mind would continually expand.  I now understand while my body continues to grow (wider), it is my mind that is perpetually stuck at 14 years old.

One Shining Pick are the picks in the pool that only the bravest had the courage to take.  Get one of these rights, and you will pick up points on most other sheets in the pool.  But the odds are against you and the reality for most of these picks is they will lose their luster soon after the ball is tipped. 



Hit/Miss Team Player
ROUND 1
Yale John Anneken
Western Kentucky Zain Aziz
ROUND 2
Nevada Amy Melone
Akron Dara Perry
Colorado Amy Melone
SWEET SIXTEEN
New Mexico Ethan Eckerle
Colorado State Dara Perry 3
Akron Dara Perry
San Diego State Amy Melone
Washington State Jennifer Cleaveland
Florida Katie Schwegman 2
Texas A&M Ethan Eckerle 2
Colorado Amy Melone
ELITE EIGHT
Michigan State John Anneken
New Mexico Ethan Eckerle
Kansas Jeff Brown 2
South Carolina Jamie Lafford 2
San Diego State Amy Melone
Wisconsin Dara Perry 2
Florida Katie Schwegman 2
Nebraska Mark Cleaveland
NC State Mark Bales
SEMI FINALS
Alabama Zain Aziz
San Diego State Amy Melone
Duke Scott Pyles 2
FINAL
Auburn Jamie Lafford
Marquette David Stubenrauch
   
 
2024 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Team Tracker
Florida Atlantic Drake BYU UAB Auburn Morehead Iowa State Stetson North Carolina Long Beach State Baylor Charleston Saint Marys New Mexico Dayton Michigan State Wagner
Northwestern Washington State Duqesne San Diego State Yale Illinois South Dakota State UConn Howard Arizona Colgate Alabama Grand Canyon Clemson Nevada Mississippi State Colorado
Colorado State Nebraska Boise State Texas Tech James Madison Duke Oakland Marquette Longwood Purdue St Peters Creighton Samford Gonzaga Oregon Texas Texas Christian
Grambling Texas A&M Florida NC State Wisconsin Vermont Kentucky Western Kentucky Houston Montana State Tennessee Akron Kansas McNeese South Carolina Virginia Utah State

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